Global air cargo demand continued its upward trend in April, driven by seasonal shipments, pre-tariff front-loading, and falling fuel prices. However, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cautioned that evolving trade dynamics—particularly in the U.S.—may impact demand in the months ahead.

According to IATA’s latest Air Cargo Market Analysis, total air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 5.8% year-over-year in April. Month-on-month, demand also rose by 2.3%. This followed a 4.4% year-on-year increase in March, largely due to early shipping activity aimed at avoiding anticipated U.S. tariff hikes.

“April-to-June is typically a busy season for airfreight, especially for fashion and consumer goods ahead of the summer retail cycle,” IATA noted. “In addition, front-loading to sidestep the May 2, 2025 U.S. tariff adjustment—specifically the removal of the de minimis allowance—boosted volumes.”

Available cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), grew 6.3% year-over-year. However, this expansion slightly outpaced demand, pushing the global cargo load factor (CLF) down by 0.2 percentage points to 43.9% compared to April 2024.

“This marginal decline reflects broader trends in the market, where capacity growth is running ahead of demand,” IATA stated.

“Air cargo saw strong growth in April, continuing momentum from March,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “The combination of seasonal consumer demand, pre-tariff shipments, and lower jet fuel prices supported the industry. With capacity at record highs and yields improving, the short-term outlook is encouraging.”

Still, Walsh cautioned that volatility in global trade policies—particularly U.S. tariff shifts—poses a potential challenge. “Trade-related disruptions are already influencing shipping behavior, and airlines must remain agile as these dynamics evolve,” he said.

While air cargo grew solidly, broader global goods trade rose by 6.5% month-on-month in April. Meanwhile, the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose slightly to 50.5—indicating continued expansion—but the sub-index for new export orders declined to 47.2, suggesting persistent weakness in cross-border demand.

Jet fuel prices provided a tailwind for air cargo carriers, dropping 21.2% year-on-year and 4.1% compared to March—the third monthly decline in a row.

Source: aircargonews.net