Air cargo volumes and capacity are expected to rise in the coming days after the United States and China agreed to a 90-day partial suspension of their ongoing trade war. The dispute had driven tariffs between the two nations to more than 100%, with additional duties placed on e-commerce shipments.
Following a weekend of negotiations, both sides announced that tariffs imposed since April 2 — which had reached 125% on some imports — would be largely suspended. A 10% tariff will remain in place from each country. Additionally, duties on de minimis shipments, primarily e-commerce parcels, will be reduced.
Despite the truce, the U.S. will maintain a separate 20% tariff it introduced earlier in the year in connection with the fentanyl crisis.
Under the new agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will now stand at 30%, while Chinese tariffs on U.S. products will drop to 10%.
According to airfreight rate tracker TAC Index, industry sources believe the temporary pause in hostilities may prompt a surge in cargo movement from China to the U.S. as companies race to ship goods before the suspension ends.
TAC noted that airfreight rates had already started to rebound slightly last week after a period of decline, possibly due to capacity being pulled from the market.
“The recent trade standoff and elevated tariffs led to the cancellation of many Block Space Agreements (BSAs),” TAC explained in its weekly report. “However, this was partially balanced by a notable drop in transpacific freighter capacity.”
Following the latest trade deal, TAC said, industry players now expect both shipping volume and airfreight capacity to increase rapidly as businesses work to replenish inventory.
A rush to ship goods ahead of tariff hikes isn’t without precedent. IATA previously linked a record-breaking March for air cargo demand to preemptive shipping ahead of anticipated trade restrictions. Still, some reports suggest that inventories remain relatively well-stocked at the moment.
Both the U.S. and China have committed to continuing trade talks during the 90-day suspension. President Donald Trump has signaled that tariffs are unlikely to return to their recent peak of 145%, though he did caution that they could still increase “substantially.”
One key change includes a reduction in the de minimis duty for packages from China and Hong Kong — now set at 54% or a flat $100 fee, down from 120%.
The earlier removal of the de minimis exemption on May 2 for parcels valued under $800 led to a drop in airfreight capacity last week. These packages had become subject to a 120% duty and more rigorous customs inspections. The slowdown coincided with China’s Labour Day holiday, which also likely contributed to the decline.
There has been industry concern that high tariffs and increased customs scrutiny could lead to a sharp decline in e-commerce shipment volumes, resulting in excess cargo capacity.
Nevertheless, transpacific airfreight capacity is already rebounding. According to data from Rotate, total cargo capacity between Asia Pacific and North America over the past 24 hours is up 26% compared to the same period last week. Widebody freighter capacity alone has jumped 40% week over week.
Source: aircargonews.com