A wave of “panic buying” is expected over the next three weeks in the trans-Pacific air freight market, as shippers rush to move goods into the U.S. before new tariff rules kick in on May 2, according to The International Air Cargo Association (Tiaca).
Tiaca Director-General Glyn Hughes told the Journal of Commerce that cargo owners are hurrying to take advantage of the current duty-free allowance for low-value imports. But once the new rules take effect, he anticipates a sharp drop in demand—especially for e-commerce shipments from China and Hong Kong, which will lose their duty-free status.
“We’re likely to see a spike in shipments driven by panic and early purchases by consumers,” Hughes said. “But once the tariffs hit, the extra cost—on shipments typically valued between $50 and $60—will likely deter further e-commerce volume from Asia to the U.S.”
Currently, items valued at or under $800 qualify for the U.S. “de minimis” exemption. Starting May 2, those shipments will be subject to a 30% duty or a flat $25 fee per item, increasing to $50 after June 1. Last year, nearly a billion de minimis shipments to the U.S. came from China.
A Kuehne + Nagel spokesperson noted their trans-Pacific air volumes are rising with the usual end-of-quarter demand, but said it’s still unclear how much of that is directly tied to the upcoming tariff changes.
Beyond e-commerce, Hughes warned that the general air cargo market between Asia and the U.S. could see a downturn. “Shipments from all Asian origins are being hit hard, with tariffs ranging from 24% to 54%,” he said. “That could lead to a broader drop in cargo volumes and force airlines to redeploy freighters to other trade lanes to maintain load factors and stabilize rates.”
As the trade environment shifts, Hughes said new global partnerships will likely emerge, as both producers and consumers look for ways to mitigate rising costs.
The uncertainty around tariffs is also influencing contract behavior in the air cargo space. Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at Xeneta, said recent data shows a clear “wait-and-see” attitude among market players.
In the first quarter, nearly 80% of negotiated contracts were short-term—three months or less—up nearly 20 percentage points from last year. Forwarders also continue to keep about 45% of their cargo volumes in the spot market.
“Typically, we’d expect shippers to lock in longer contracts to secure better rates, especially with growth slowing,” van de Wouw said. “But right now, few are willing to take that risk—and this is before the full impact of tariffs hits.”
Rates on the Shanghai–North America route climbed to $5.54 per kilogram this week, up 20% since early March, marking the third consecutive week above the $5/kg threshold, according to the Baltic Air Index.
Source: joc.com