Ocean carriers are pulling back capacity ahead of the mid-August end to the 90-day pause on higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. An increasing number of trans-Pacific sailings have been blanked through July, and with most pre-tariff cargo already moving, spot rates are expected to soften through summer.

Maritime data from eeSea shows roughly 175,000 TEUs will be blanked in July—about 11 percent of Asia–U.S. West Coast capacity—up from 118,500 TEUs (9 percent) in June.

The cancellations align with the looming August 12 tariff deadline and an earlier August 1 cutoff for negotiations with other Asian countries. Demand has already cooled, as it’s too late to ship goods from Vietnam and Southeast Asia in time to avoid higher duties.

Many suspended services include calls at southern Chinese ports or Southeast Asia transshipment hubs.

Major carriers are scaling back. OOCL canceled July sailings on its PSX service, keeping only a Shanghai call at month’s end. CU Lines, SeaLead, and other niche carriers have also withdrawn services.

Big-ship services are not exempt. CMA CGM cut a voyage on its Columbus Jax service, which also stops at Port Klang, Laem Chabang, and Cai Mep. Cosco Shipping and Premier Alliance canceled July sailings on their 13,000-TEU services.

Most forwarders and importers expect soft volumes through year-end, even if tariffs are lifted. With inventories stocked from earlier frontloading, demand is not expected to rebound quickly.

Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of 365 Logistics, noted that importers are holding back as inventory levels remain sufficient.

Spot rates have slipped despite earlier increases. As of July 15, West Coast rates hovered near $2,500 per container, but some quotes have dropped to $1,700. Robert Khachatryan of Freight Right said capacity cuts, not demand, are propping up rates.

Platts reported Asia–USWC rates at $1,733 per FEU on July 16, while Drewry listed Shanghai–Los Angeles at $2,817 on July 17, reflecting rate inconsistency across routes.

As summer progresses, uncertainty around tariffs and stable inventory levels suggest importers will continue playing it safe. Carriers are expected to keep adjusting capacity accordingly.

Source: joc.com