In a typical year, the trans-Pacific trade lane would now be entering its busy season for U.S. imports from Asia. But 2025 is anything but typical. Sudden shifts in U.S. trade policy have thrown a wrench into shipping strategies, unsettling importers and exporters on both sides of the Pacific.
The crux of the issue lies in the unpredictability of tariffs. After the Trump administration announced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2, most were postponed until July 9. At the same time, U.S. duties on Chinese goods spiked to 145%, with China retaliating at 125%. These hikes were mostly paused again on May 14, but the damage to supply chain planning was already underway.
Container Trade Statistics (CTS) show how shippers have tried to adapt. Following the April pause, importers seemed to frontload cargo from non-Chinese origins such as Europe, South America, Africa, and the Middle East to beat the next tariff deadline. April volumes from these regions grew faster than in Q1, but momentum faded sharply in May—except for slight resilience in the Indian subcontinent and Middle East.
This shift signals that many U.S. importers abandoned frontloading in favor of a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
For Chinese cargo, the impact was more severe. Asia–North America volumes dropped 8% in April and plunged another 15% in May. When tariffs were paused mid-May, demand rebounded quickly—much of it from cargo that had been held back. But carriers, having already cut capacity due to weak demand, couldn’t respond fast enough.
It took nearly three weeks to restore capacity, during which time spot rates surged.
Initially, the industry expected the demand surge to continue through August 14, the next tariff deadline. Carriers ramped up capacity accordingly. But by June, importers had changed their minds again, abandoning the frontloading strategy as tariff uncertainty intensified.
The surge faded quickly, and spot rates dropped just as fast. Carriers, once again, are pulling back capacity from the trans-Pacific.
Facing constantly shifting deadlines and a lack of clarity on which tariffs will actually take effect, U.S. importers are scaling back to only the most essential shipments. Unfortunately, physical supply chains cannot keep up with the speed of policy changes. Even after the mid-May pause, it took weeks for carriers to react—by which time conditions had already shifted.
This pattern is likely to repeat: short, sharp surges followed by equally quick declines. Shippers may pivot daily by booking or holding back cargo, especially when they have inventory in place. Carriers, however, are constrained by vessel speeds and scheduling, making the system vulnerable to ongoing imbalances between supply and demand.
As long as policy uncertainty continues, volatility will be the new normal on the trans-Pacific.
Source: joc.com