The suspension of China–U.S. shipments and a wave of blank sailings on the trans-Pacific trade lane may lead to a significant redistribution of vessel capacity, according to Alexandra Ilascu of Kuehne + Nagel. Speaking during the Journal of Commerce’s Asia-Europe webinar, Ilascu warned that these shifts are likely to impact other trade routes, including Asia-Europe and the trans-Atlantic.
With ongoing congestion at North European ports and extended voyage times around the Cape of Good Hope, some of the redirected capacity may be absorbed. However, Ilascu noted that such volatility makes long-term planning difficult.
“There’s a clear trend of carriers cutting capacity on Asia–U.S. and China–U.S. lanes,” she said. “Those ships are being reallocated—to Latin America first, then Africa, and eventually to Asia–North Europe and Asia–Mediterranean.”
Ilascu, who manages K+N’s global sea logistics for Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and Europe, emphasized the challenge for freight forwarders: as Asia–Europe networks adjust to higher capacity, a rebound in trans-Pacific demand—possibly following tariff reductions—could prompt another swift shift in vessel deployment.
“This back-and-forth movement could hit during peak season, creating volatility in available capacity,” she warned.
According to maritime analytics firms Vizion and Dun & Bradstreet, bookings from China to the U.S. fell by nearly 54% from April 21–28 compared to the same week in March. While some U.S. retailers have resumed shipments, the outlook remains uncertain due to steep tariffs—145% imposed by the U.S. and 125% in retaliation from China.
With U.S. demand slumping, Chinese manufacturers are extending promotional rates to European buyers, said Toni Rigalos, managing partner at ShiftX, a cargo procurement consultancy. Yet, interest in these deals remains limited.
“We work with several large retailers, but they’re not jumping at the offers,” Rigalos said during the webinar. “Demand in Europe is still soft, so they’re proceeding cautiously.”
Despite lackluster consumer demand across Europe, carriers are easing off blank sailings in May and deploying record capacity on Asia–Europe lanes. Data from eeSea indicates that May capacity will hit 1.13 million TEUs, with just 73,000 TEUs blanked—suggesting some carriers anticipate an increase in diverted trans-Pacific volume.
Views differ on the reasons behind blank sailings. Ilascu argues they are “structural,” driven by operational disruptions like Red Sea rerouting and port congestion, which have left vessel loops two to three ships short.
“Carriers are fighting for market share on Asia–Europe and deploying as much tonnage as they can,” she noted. “Rates have been stable, so these aren’t commercial blankings.”
Rigalos disagreed, suggesting that weak demand in May and June is behind the recent capacity management moves.
“Carriers are trying to position ships for better on-time performance,” he said. “But now they might be facing overcapacity and are adjusting accordingly.”
Spot rates on key Asia–Europe routes have stabilized after steep declines since late December. Platts data shows Asia–North Europe rates at $1,800 per FEU—down 64% since December 30—while Asia–Mediterranean rates sit at $2,733/FEU, a 48% drop.
Source: joc.com