U.S. imports are expected to surge in July, reaching their highest monthly level in at least 18 months and marking the peak for 2025, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The spike is being driven by a last-minute decision by the Trump administration to extend a pause on new “reciprocal” tariffs, now set to take effect on August 1.

However, the NRF warns the uptick will be short-lived. After July, monthly imports are expected to decline steadily through November, as retailers pull back following the early shipping surge.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid, and retailers are doing everything they can to bring in merchandise before the paused tariffs come into force,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The extension was helpful, but uncertainty around tariffs continues to create planning challenges — especially for small businesses.”

The unexpected extension of a 90-day tariff pause—initially set to expire July 9—prompted NRF and Hackett to revise their monthly import forecasts upward for July through October.

July imports are now projected at 2.36 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), up nearly 11% from the June forecast and surpassing the 2.32 million TEUs imported in July 2024. It’s the only month in the second half of 2025 expected to post a year-over-year gain.

August is forecast at 2.08 million TEUs, 5% higher than the previous projection but still 10% below August 2024’s volume.

September imports are now expected to reach 1.82 million TEUs, a slight 2.2% increase from the previous month’s estimate but down nearly 20% from a year ago.

October is forecast at 1.81 million TEUs, down 19.1% year-over-year.

November is projected to fall even further to 1.7 million TEUs, a 16.2% drop compared to November 2024.

June’s final import total is estimated at 2.06 million TEUs, a modest 2.5% upgrade from last month’s forecast. May’s final tally came in at 1.95 million TEUs, about 2% above the prior estimate.

With import volumes expected to decline after July, ocean carriers are adjusting accordingly. Capacity from Asia to the U.S. West Coast is set to shrink by 6.2% in August compared to July, according to maritime analytics firm eeSea.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, emphasized that ongoing volatility in trade policy is damaging the reliability of the global supply chain.

“Global logistics systems work best when trade flows are predictable,” Hackett said. “Instead, the industry has been left to navigate erratic policies and mounting geopolitical risks.”

The Global Port Tracker report is published monthly and analyzes data from 13 major U.S. ports across the East, West, and Gulf coasts.

Source: joc.com