Lufthansa Cargo anticipates growth in the air cargo market in 2025 despite ongoing geopolitical challenges and capacity constraints.
During a recent webinar, Heike Woerner, senior director of business development, shared the airline’s projection of a 3-5% increase in cargo demand this year. This growth aligns with forecasts of 3.3% global economic expansion and improvements in emerging markets like Vietnam and India, where GDP is expected to rise by 4.3%.
E-commerce continues to be a significant driver, with shipments into Europe increasing by approximately 12% annually. Pharma cargo is also on the rise, with volumes expected to grow 3.3% per year due to aging populations. Meanwhile, high-tech shipments, including semiconductor-related cargo, are projected to increase by over 3%.
Despite these positive indicators, Woerner acknowledged that the industry faces significant challenges.
“We are experiencing a highly volatile economic and political landscape,” she said. “The air cargo industry has always been dynamic, with drastic shifts such as the demand surge during the pandemic followed by a post-pandemic decline.”
Geopolitical tensions, including European carriers’ restricted access to Russian airspace, continue to create market uncertainty, increasing costs and flight times. Economic factors, such as rising protectionism and regulatory hurdles, also add complexity. The U.S. has imposed additional tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from other nations. Furthermore, upcoming regulatory changes in e-commerce, including the European Union’s 2028 customs reform, could affect trade flows. Currently, the EU processes approximately 10 million parcels from China daily.
However, Woerner emphasized that these challenges also present opportunities for adaptable airlines.
“While uncertainties persist, it’s important to remain observant and adaptable. The air cargo industry thrives on volatility, and opportunities often emerge for those who can provide fast and reliable solutions,” she noted.
She highlighted the shifting supply chain landscape, with manufacturers increasingly relocating production to countries such as Vietnam—a trend that began during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war and continues to accelerate. In response, Lufthansa Cargo launched operations between Ho Chi Minh City and Los Angeles to tap into growing trade demand.
Looking ahead, key trade lanes poised for growth include intra-Asia, Asia Pacific-Middle East, Asia Pacific-Europe, Middle East-Europe, and Africa-Europe. Woerner pointed out the disparity in economic performance across regions, noting that while Germany and parts of Europe face stagnation, Vietnam has seen export growth of 20% in the past year.
In terms of air cargo yields, January saw a 13% year-on-year increase due to rising costs, inflation, strong demand, and constrained capacity. Capacity challenges persist, with widebody freighter availability expected to grow only 2% annually through 2030. Meanwhile, widebody belly capacity remains 19% below 2019 levels. The aging freighter fleet further compounds the issue, with 30% of in-service aircraft now over 30 years old. Production delays have also impacted supply, with limited Boeing 777 freighter deliveries last year and postponed launches of the Airbus A350 freighter and Boeing 777-8 freighter.
To navigate market volatility, Lufthansa Cargo remains committed to the industry’s core selling points—speed, reliability, and security—while also emphasizing the importance of global reach and flexible network solutions to meet evolving air cargo demands.
Source: aircargonews.net