Ocean carriers are maintaining strong trans-Atlantic capacity in anticipation of the July 9 expiration of President Donald Trump’s 90-day suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs. Despite softening freight rates and tepid demand, carriers appear to be preparing for a potential surge in shipments once trade policy becomes clearer.

The 90-day pause—set to expire next week—was put in place as part of ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union. While no final agreement has been reached, expectations in the trade community point toward a potential reintroduction of 10% tariffs on a broad range of imports from the EU, including autos, steel, and aluminum. Trump has left the door open to extending the pause further depending on the progress of talks.

With the situation still in flux, carriers are choosing to keep vessel capacity high in case U.S. importers rush to bring in goods ahead of new duties.

According to data from ocean intelligence provider eeSea, westbound trans-Atlantic capacity in July will hit a 12-month high of 344,811 TEUs, before easing slightly to 327,226 TEUs in August. Only 24,840 TEUs are set to be blanked in July, and no blank sailings have been announced for August so far.

Despite these preparations, the rate environment remains soft. Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking firm Xeneta, noted that spot rate declines began to slow in May and June after plunging 21.6% in Q1. As of now, short-term rates from North Europe to North America have fallen 37% since the beginning of the year, landing at $1,206 per FEU.

Sand highlighted a key trend: “Demand from January through April fell slightly—just 0.5% lower than last year—while weekly deployed capacity rose from 75,000 TEUs in mid-February to 89,000 TEUs today.”

Looking ahead, Xeneta anticipates another minor rate drop of $40–$50 per FEU in early July. Meanwhile, carriers are projecting capacity could rise further to between 95,000 and 97,000 TEUs per week in the coming months.

Spot market rates tracked by Platts, a sister firm to the Journal of Commerce under S&P Global, have held steady at $1,700 per FEU on the North Europe–U.S. East Coast lane since May 16.

Casper Ellerbaek, global head of ocean freight at DHL Global Forwarding, acknowledged that there has been “some degree” of frontloading on the westbound trans-Atlantic route in anticipation of tariffs—but he cautioned against interpreting this as a broader trend.

“With so much uncertainty on this trade lane, it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions about demand shifts,” Ellerbaek said.

According to PIERS data from S&P Global, U.S. imports from Northern Europe totaled 196,580 TEUs in May, down from the March high of 212,730 TEUs. Imports from the Mediterranean reached a 2025 peak of 170,360 TEUs in April but dropped 19% to 137,710 TEUs in May.

With the July 9 tariff deadline looming, the trans-Atlantic market is stuck in limbo—high on capacity, low on clarity, and waiting for the next policy move to shape demand.

Source: joc.com