Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered renewed warnings for the global shipping industry. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which provides security advisories for commercial vessels, has urged heightened caution for ships navigating the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz.

The advisory comes ahead of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations set to take place in Oman on June 15. U.S. officials have indicated a willingness to consider military action if talks break down, while Iran has responded with threats to strike U.S. military installations if provoked.

These developments are particularly concerning for global trade, as nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this corridor could have significant ripple effects on energy markets and global supply chains. “A full-blown armed conflict between Israel/U.S. and Iran would most certainly effectively close the Straits of Hormuz, at least for a period of time, and drive-up oil prices,” said Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO.

Recent events have already raised alarm. Iranian forces have detained vessels on smuggling allegations, and several ships reported GPS signal interference in the Strait earlier this year — both of which highlight growing safety concerns.

Meanwhile, shipping activity in the nearby Red Sea remains subdued. Although traffic has rebounded by 60% since August 2024 to around 36–37 vessels daily, it is still well below the pre-crisis average of 72–75 daily transits. Ocean carriers remain wary, citing a lack of firm security guarantees for crew, vessels, and cargo.

The situation deteriorated further on Friday following extensive Israeli airstrikes on Iran, prompting fears of broader regional escalation. In its latest statement, the UKMTO cautioned: “The situation remains highly volatile. At present, there is no direct evidence that commercial shipping is being targeted. However, given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted.”

As tensions mount, industry stakeholders are bracing for potential fallout that could reshape maritime logistics in one of the world’s most critical regions for global energy flow.

Source: Shipco