Spot rates on the trans-Pacific trade lane are climbing even faster than during the pandemic-driven spike of spring 2021, fueled by a surge in Asian imports ahead of looming U.S. tariff hikes. This rush, triggered by a temporary pause in tariffs enacted under the Trump administration, has ocean carriers pushing rates aggressively to maximize revenue during the cargo surge.

According to industry sources, spot rates to the U.S. West Coast are now in the low $6,000s per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU), with East Coast rates in the low $7,000s. While rate indexes are still catching up, Platts reported rates on Monday at $5,600 per FEU to the West Coast (up 33% in one week) and $6,500 to the East Coast (up 25%). Since mid-April, West Coast spot rates have surged by 173%, with East Coast rates doubling over the same period.

Carriers implemented a general rate increase (GRI) on June 1 and are planning additional hikes mid-June and again on July 1. Ocean carriers are racing to lock in higher prices before new vessel capacity—coming in the form of extra-loader services and newly launched routes—dampens rate momentum.

“This next increase or two could be the last,” said Jason Cook, CEO of Ardent Global Logistics. “We’re already seeing signs that new capacity is entering the trade.”

Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy noted that trans-Pacific capacity to the West Coast will rise 12.8% in June, with a further 16.5% jump in July—equivalent to nearly 400,000 additional TEUs within just six weeks.

The tariff pause is set to expire in two stages: July 9 for most countries (excluding China), and mid-August for Chinese imports, which face a potential jump from a reduced 30% tariff back to a full 145%. This looming deadline has triggered a massive wave of frontloaded shipments, especially to Southern California’s Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex, which handles around half of all U.S. imports from Asia.

Port projections show weekly import volumes ramping up sharply. Los Angeles expects imports to rise from 92,000 TEUs this week to 112,000 TEUs by mid-June. Long Beach forecasts volumes climbing from 75,000 TEUs next week to over 90,000 TEUs per week through the end of June.

“Clearly, shippers are trying to catch up on lost time out of China,” one freight forwarder observed.

Bookings from Southeast Asia remain strong, while China-origin volumes have moderated slightly following a sharp spike after the May 12 tariff pause announcement.

Freight forwarders are predicting an unusually short and early peak season due to the aggressive frontloading of cargo. Rather than the traditional August-to-October window, this year’s busiest period is expected to land squarely in June.

“We’re already in the peak season,” said Christian Sur, EVP of ocean freight at Unique Logistics. “The peak of the peak will be in the second half of June.”

Carriers, hoping to maintain momentum, are holding off on peak season surcharges (PSSs) for now, focusing instead on boosting spot rates and locking in volumes from core customers before demand cools.

“They’re being very cautious with PSSs,” noted one carrier executive. “But they’re clearly prioritizing spot rate hikes while the market is hot.”

Source: joc.com