Vietnam’s air cargo exports to the United States are climbing at a record pace, driven by U.S. importers shifting sourcing away from China amid rising tariffs and geopolitical tension. A rush to move goods before tariff changes — combined with Vietnam’s expanding manufacturing base — has helped accelerate the country’s air freight growth.

Air cargo volumes between Ho Chi Minh City and the U.S. jumped 62% through April compared to the same period last year, totaling 97,000 metric tons, according to data from air cargo analytics firm Rotate.

Much of the surge is tied to changes in U.S. tariff policy. The initial spike came in April ahead of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. That was followed by a temporary 90-day pause in early May, prompting even more frontloading. While the pause ends on July 9, analysts believe Vietnam’s air cargo momentum may continue.

“As long as U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain higher than those on Vietnam, we expect further growth in Vietnam-origin imports,” said Tim van Leeuwen, head of consulting at Rotate. “Shippers are optimizing logistics strategies to reduce tariff costs, sometimes even reversing their supply chains between China and Vietnam.”

Under a new trade framework, most U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods are set to rise from 10% to 20%, with a punitive 40% rate targeting transshipped goods — Chinese exports routed through Vietnam to avoid tariffs. However, the U.S. has yet to clarify how transshipment will be defined or enforced.

In return, Vietnam has agreed to zero tariffs on U.S. goods and preferential access for certain U.S. exports, such as large-engine automobiles.

Meanwhile, tariffs on Chinese exports are expected to spike to 55% starting August 12, as Washington attempts to curb indirect trade through Vietnam. The U.S. believes as much as one-third of Vietnam’s exports to America are actually Chinese products rerouted to avoid tariffs.

Vietnam’s air freight sector is capitalizing on this shift. Kuehne + Nagel and its subsidiary Apex now operate 14 weekly chartered flights from Vietnam to the U.S., transporting high-value goods such as electronics and semiconductors.

“Direct capacity between Vietnam and the U.S. has grown significantly compared to the past three years,” van Leeuwen noted. However, many flights still include intermediate stops in Northeast Asia, where total outbound capacity from Vietnam has grown by 15%, equal to about 20 daily Boeing 777 freighters.

Airfreight rates reflect the demand. According to Freightos Terminal, rates from Ho Chi Minh to the U.S. have remained well above $6/kg this year, peaking at $6.72/kg in mid-June. This week, rates dipped slightly — to $6.00/kg for Chicago and $6.28/kg for New York — potentially due to added capacity ahead of the tariff pause expiration.

“A 20% tariff might encourage some shippers to look elsewhere,” said analyst Levine, “but manufacturing in Vietnam remains cheaper than in China, so many importers will likely stay put for now — especially amid continued uncertainty around future tariff levels elsewhere.”

Logistics providers across the Asia-Pacific are watching Vietnam closely. Dmitry Kulish, Asia-Pacific air cargo general manager at Air Cargo Network Group (ACN), said Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing export markets in the region.

“The production shift across Asia has been underway for some time,” he said. “Vietnam stands out right now, but we’re closely monitoring how changing trade policy may impact future growth.”

Tariff volatility remains a major concern, Kulish added. “We’re in a phase where political decisions can quickly change the outlook for exporters, and that makes forecasting and investment decisions more complex.”

A new report from DHL also reinforces this view. In its latest Air Trade Leading Index survey, nearly 30% of air cargo traders in Hong Kong reported a spike in urgent orders from Southeast Asia — particularly Vietnam — following the U.S. pause on China tariffs in May.

“As global trade patterns continue to evolve, Southeast Asia — and Vietnam in particular — have emerged as key markets with strong growth potential,” DHL said in a statement.

Source: joc.com