Air cargo demand in 2024 has surpassed the record volumes of 2021 by 0.5%, driven by high e-commerce activity and constraints in ocean shipping.

According to full-year data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), demand in 2024, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 11.3% compared to 2023. Despite this growth, full-year yields were 1.6% lower than in 2023 but remained 39% higher than in 2019.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), saw a 7.4% increase over 2023 levels. Although demand growth began to decelerate in November, air cargo maintained its upward trajectory into December, with global CTK rising by 6.1% year-over-year (YoY), marking 17 consecutive months of growth. After seasonal adjustments, demand showed a modest 0.9% month-on-month increase.

Global cargo capacity in December exceeded 2023 levels by 3.7%. Cargo yields rose by 6.6% compared to December 2023 and were 53.4% higher than in December 2019.

“Air cargo was a standout performer in 2024, with airlines transporting more cargo than ever before,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “The year saw profitable growth, with demand surging by 11.3% due to strong e-commerce trends and ocean shipping disruptions. Airspace restrictions on key long-haul routes to Asia helped sustain exceptionally high yields. While average yields softened from their 2021-2022 peaks, they remained 39% higher than 2019 levels.”

IATA’s end-of-year market analysis emphasized the industry’s resilience, noting that despite geopolitical challenges, air cargo ended 2024 on a strong note. Global events, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, restricted airspace and increased fuel costs. Security concerns led to stricter measures, causing delays and backlogs. Additionally, national elections in 73 countries saw political shifts amid economic uncertainties. Rising interest rates and capacity constraints also influenced industry performance.

IATA forecasts a 5.8% growth rate for air cargo in 2025 but warns that geopolitical tensions may impact results. “Economic fundamentals indicate another strong year for air cargo, supported by declining oil prices and growing trade activity,” Walsh noted. “However, evolving geopolitical landscapes will pose adaptation challenges. The first week of the Trump administration signaled a keen interest in leveraging tariffs, a strategy that could both inflate costs and dampen trade.”

Despite a generally robust global economy, some economic indicators raised concerns. Global trade in goods grew by 3.6% in 2024, yet December’s manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 49.2, while new export orders PMI was 48.2, both below the crucial 50-point threshold, signaling contraction.

Inflation rates also fluctuated. In December, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9%, while the EU’s inflation rate rose to 2.7%. Meanwhile, China’s consumer inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, marking a fourth consecutive YoY decline and reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown.

Regionally, Asia-Pacific led the market with a 14.5% YoY growth in air cargo demand, while capacity increased by 11.3%. December demand rose by 8.4%, with capacity up by 6.3%.

North American carriers experienced the lowest growth among all regions at 6.6%, with a 3.4% capacity increase. In December, demand grew by 5.3%, while capacity rose by 2.1%.

European airlines recorded an 11.2% growth in demand, with a 7.8% increase in capacity. December demand rose by 5.1%, with capacity up by 3.7%.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 13% demand increase, with a 5.5% rise in capacity. December demand grew by 3.3%, while capacity edged up by 0.2%.

Latin America posted a 12.6% growth in air cargo demand for 2024, with a 7.9% capacity increase. December saw the highest regional demand growth at 10.9%, with capacity up by 8.4%.

African airlines experienced an 8.5% increase in air cargo demand, with a 13.6% rise in capacity. However, December demand fell by 0.9%, the lowest among all regions, while capacity increased by 1.8%.

International routes sustained strong performance for the 17th consecutive month, recording a 7% YoY increase in December.

IATA concluded: “Rising e-commerce demand in the U.S. and Europe, coupled with ongoing ocean shipping constraints, continues to benefit airlines.”

 

Source: aircargonews.net