Air cargo capacity experienced significant growth last year, with double-digit percentage increases, driven by a recovery in bellyhold capacity and sustained high levels of freighter space compared to pre-Covid benchmarks.
According to data provider and consultant Rotate, total air cargo capacity in 2024, measured in airfreight tonne kilometers (ATKs), rose by 10% year-on-year to reach 442 billion ATKs. This growth was primarily fueled by the resurgence of passenger services, leading to a 13% year-on-year increase in bellyhold capacity, which is now just 1% shy of pre-Covid 2019 levels.
Freighter capacity also grew by 8% year-on-year in 2024, reflecting the industry’s continued reliance on dedicated cargo aircraft. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, freighter capacity has surged by 43%.
Rotate’s analysis suggests that while capacity grew by 10% in ATK terms, it increased by a slightly lower 8% in tonnage terms. This discrepancy indicates that longer flight distances and higher cargo loads contributed to the larger ATK growth.
The most significant capacity increases were observed on major east-west trade routes originating in Asia, driven by robust e-commerce demand throughout 2024. For instance, ATK capacity from Asia Pacific to North America rose by 15%, while Asia-to-Europe routes saw a 16% increase. Capacity from Asia to the Middle East climbed by 17%, and the Middle East-to-Europe route recorded a 15% rise. These shifts were influenced by factors such as the Red Sea missile crisis, which prompted a modal shift from sea to air, and the broader growth in e-commerce markets.
Looking ahead, experts anticipate that maintaining the same pace of growth in the air cargo market will be challenging. Speaking at the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum last year, Rotate’s chief executive, Ryan Keyrouse, outlined several supply-side constraints.
Keyrouse highlighted slowing belly capacity growth, delays in aircraft production, and high passenger demand limiting the availability of feedstock for conversion into cargo aircraft. He noted that aircraft utilization had reached its highest level in five years, leaving little room for additional capacity from the current global fleet.
“We are almost at maximum utilization, so aircraft can’t fly more,” Keyrouse explained. “In 2025, we expect a maximum of 4.4% capacity growth based on deliveries and conversions. This figure doesn’t account for retirements, so growth could be even lower.”
Keyrouse added that with potential demand growth of 20% from China, the capacity shortfall would likely require reallocating resources from other regions, such as Africa and Latin America. “You have to wonder how far this can go,” he said. “Reallocating capacity is essentially the only lever left to meet rising demand in these high-growth markets.”
Source: aircargonews.net