The air cargo sector is adopting a cautious “wait and see” stance regarding the possible impact of new US tariffs and heightened regulatory scrutiny for e-commerce shipments. This sentiment was echoed during the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum, where industry leaders discussed how anticipated policy changes could reshape the market.

At the forum, Tiaca’s executive director Glynn Hughes noted that incoming US president Donald Trump has proposed imposing significant tariffs: 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on goods from other countries. Additionally, the US may tighten regulations for e-commerce imports by reducing the threshold for the de minimis exemption, which currently allows goods valued under $800 to bypass certain duties and customs inspections.

Asok Kumar, executive vice president of global airfreight at DB Schenker, acknowledged the potential impact of tariffs, especially if shippers decide to expedite cargo movements ahead of implementation. “A 20% tariff on imports outside China and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would logically have an impact,” Kumar said. “We’ve seen this before, though not as extensively as expected. Shippers may rush goods in anticipation, which could make for a busy few months.”

While no clients have rushed shipments yet, Kumar noted that Chinese e-commerce players are preparing for possible de minimis changes. “Chinese e-commerce companies have stated they’re ready with solutions, so we don’t expect a major impact on their volume,” he said.

Jan Krems, president of United Cargo, emphasized the importance of adaptability, noting that while goods still need to reach the US, it remains uncertain how e-commerce and other products will be affected by the tariffs. “We’ll have to see how substantial these tariffs are and how they impact us,” Krems said.

Dirk Goovaerts, global cargo chair at Swissport International, agreed that agility is crucial in a fluctuating market. “One market may slow down, but others can pick up. Production might even shift away from China,” he added, underscoring the need for rapid adaptation.

Reflecting on 2024, Krems mentioned an unexpectedly positive start due to supply chain disruptions on the Panama Canal and shipping delays caused by Red Sea missile attacks, which led to a temporary shift from sea to air freight. Looking forward, he expects a strong start to 2025 and plans for United Cargo to add routes from China, though the airline’s capacity will remain below pre-COVID levels.

Kumar shared that although 2024’s peak season was solid, it didn’t meet the industry’s high expectations. “It was busy but not exceptional,” he noted, describing the peak season as underwhelming but not disappointing.

Both Krems and Kumar expressed cautious optimism for 2025. Kumar highlighted potential challenges with capacity constraints, suggesting that, depending on demand, capacity management could become a priority. “The supply situation remains tight, which may create challenges in terms of yield,” Kumar added, indicating that careful capacity and yield management will be crucial for a successful 2025.

 

Source: aircargonews.net