The airfreight industry has reached a pivotal moment, with benefits from the Red Sea crisis tapering off while e-commerce growth continues to exacerbate trade lane imbalances. These insights were shared by experts during the “Flexport Air Market Predictions for 2025” webinar this week.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, noted that while ocean freight disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis have bolstered airfreight rates and volumes, the impact has likely peaked.
“We think the Red Sea situation has plateaued. The boost it’s given to airfreight has reached its peak and might even decline slightly,” he said.
Van de Wouw added that if the crisis is resolved or safe ocean passage is established, the ample capacity in ocean freight could reduce airfreight demand. However, potential U.S. East Coast port strikes in January may counteract this decline by redirecting freight to air carriers.
Adriaan den Heijer, Executive Vice President of Cargo at Air France KLM and Managing Director of Martinair, highlighted that surging e-commerce is further disrupting trade lanes, particularly with increased demand for routes out of Asia.
“E-commerce growth could lead to even more trade imbalances,” he said, noting that global freighter capacity has been increasingly concentrated in China and surrounding areas, often at the expense of regions like Africa and South America.
This shift is creating capacity shortages in underserved regions, which cannot be fully compensated by passenger aircraft belly space. European airlines, including Air France KLM, are reducing flights to China due to extended routes avoiding Russian airspace, reallocating capacity to the Americas. However, these adjustments don’t always align with key cargo trade lanes.
Experts also pointed to geopolitical tensions and labor disruptions as significant hurdles for the airfreight industry. Millena Millenkovic, Flexport’s Regional Airfreight Manager for Benelux, emphasized that U.S.-China tariff disputes, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Middle East instability are adding new complexities to global trade.
Additionally, labor strikes could stretch airfreight capacity further, delaying supply chains and triggering inventory shortages during peak seasons.
Thomas Kempf, Flexport’s Senior Director of Business Airfreight Development, forecasted a capacity-demand imbalance in 2025, with demand expected to grow by 4-5%, outpacing capacity growth. Factors like aging freighter fleets, delivery delays, and geopolitical conflicts contribute to this strain.
Van de Wouw concluded that e-commerce is reshaping the airfreight market. Without its rapid growth, traditional B2B airfreight would still be below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, den Heijer observed that some sectors, like automotive, are experiencing declining volumes, and pharmaceuticals are increasingly shifting from air to sea freight.
As the airfreight industry looks ahead, experts agree that agility and strategic adjustments will be crucial to navigating these evolving challenges and opportunities.
Source: aircargonews.net