The post-peak season decline in air cargo demand from the Asia Pacific region has not been as severe as initially feared, according to data provider WorldACD.

WorldACD analyzed the drop in demand between the December peak and the early January low after concerns arose among air cargo industry executives about the extent of the decline, particularly for e-commerce shipments from Asia Pacific to Europe.

The data reveals that both the 2023 and 2024 peak seasons were exceptionally strong in the Asia Pacific region, followed by a seasonal slowdown. Although this year’s decline is slightly steeper than last year’s, it remains within expected limits. In 2023, the demand drop from the peak to early January 2024 was 30%, while the current year’s decline stands at 33%.

By the third week of 2024, air cargo volumes from Asia Pacific had rebounded to approximately 95% of their December peak levels, compared to 90% in the same period last year.

Despite this recovery, demand from Asia Pacific to Europe is rebounding at a slower pace than in the previous year. This slower recovery could be attributed to last year’s market strength, driven by the early stages of the Red Sea crisis and the surge in e-commerce demand, as well as the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year in 2025.

Last winter, shipments from Asia Pacific to Europe, particularly from China, had surpassed their week 48-50 levels by the third week. However, this year, volumes remain 20% below week 49 levels, with shipments from China to Europe trailing by 15%.

WorldACD attributes this decline to the extraordinarily high volumes seen in the final weeks of 2024 and the earlier Lunar New Year, which falls on 29 January in 2025 compared to 10 February in 2024.

Recent data for the third week of 2025 shows that air cargo demand increased as companies rushed to ship goods before factory closures in China and other parts of Asia for the Lunar New Year celebrations. In the week ending 19 January, demand rose by 8% compared to the previous week, following a 29% increase the week before.

The early Lunar New Year has shortened the post-Christmas demand slump. WorldACD reports that global tonnages in week three have returned to about 90% of their pre-Christmas levels.

Demand from the Asia Pacific region increased by 5% week on week in week three and stands 5% higher than the same period last year.

While demand has risen, average global air cargo rates have remained relatively stable at $2.43 per kg in week three, which is approximately 7% higher than a year ago.

 

Source: aircargonews.net