E-commerce shipments to the US are showing signs of a shift from air cargo to sea freight, with potential changes to de minimis rules likely to accelerate this trend.

This perspective was highlighted during Freightos’ “Global Freight Outlook” webinar, which explored how actions by the incoming Trump administration might impact e-commerce airfreight. Currently, de minimis exemptions allow shipments valued under $800 to bypass customs tariffs and reporting requirements. Stricter regulations could significantly alter this landscape.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that some Chinese exporters and US e-commerce sellers are already increasing inventory levels via ocean freight in anticipation of stricter rules. “If there is a closure or tightening of de minimis exemptions for certain countries or goods, the impact on air cargo could be dramatic,” Levine explained.

He also pointed to emerging trends such as shipping goods through Mexico or directly to the US, reducing reliance on air cargo. “These steps may indicate that a shift away from air cargo in e-commerce is already underway,” Levine added. “Should de minimis thresholds be significantly lowered or eliminated, the shift could happen even faster.”

E-commerce shipments already face challenges in both the US and Europe. For instance, the European Commission plans to remove customs duty exemptions for goods valued under €150. In the US, Adam Lewis, president of Clearit Customs Brokers, observed that changes to de minimis exemptions are more focused on high-value imports. “The shift to ocean freight will likely be gradual,” Lewis stated. “E-commerce products, particularly Type 86 shipments, haven’t heavily relied on container shipping in the past.”

Lewis also suggested that while air cargo rates might initially decline, the market would eventually adjust. “Air cargo is dynamic and responsive to supply and demand. Any regulatory changes making low-value imports costlier or more cumbersome might modestly impact ocean rates but would likely have a minimal effect overall.”

Regarding potential tariffs under the Trump administration, Lewis warned of substantial measures. “The administration is reportedly considering a 10-20% tariff on all imports, a 60-100% tariff on goods from China, a 100% tariff on imports from countries abandoning the US dollar, and similar tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico,” he said. These measures could be implemented quickly under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act.

Levine observed that while such tariffs might affect ocean freight volumes more significantly, air cargo could see a temporary demand spike. “Shippers may rush to use air freight for time-sensitive goods if tariffs are implemented on short notice,” he explained.

The broader e-commerce market also faces challenges from government regulations and market saturation. Analyst Xeneta has cautioned against overreliance on e-commerce, warning that such trends may not be sustainable. Levine emphasized that if de minimis exemptions are curtailed, the costs and speed of shipping e-commerce goods by air could be severely impacted, threatening its viability as a preferred mode of transport.

 

Source: aircargonews.net