The effects of stricter e-commerce shipping regulations started to surface in February’s air cargo data, even as the overall market maintained its growth trajectory.

According to new figures from data provider Xeneta, global air cargo demand rose by 4% year over year in February. The dynamic load factor remained steady at 59%, while the average spot freight rate climbed 10% to $2.53 per kg.

However, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, pointed to early signs of disruption in the e-commerce sector, particularly on Shanghai-US routes, where spot rates dropped 29% month over month to $3.23 per kg.

Van de Wouw noted that Shanghai was among the first regions to experience the impact of reduced e-commerce volumes.

“Even accounting for the earlier Lunar New Year and the typical seasonal slowdown in e-commerce, the sharp decline in Shanghai-US rates—following the temporary removal of the de minimis exemption on Chinese shipments—may be an early sign that regulatory and political decisions are beginning to affect the air cargo market,” he explained.

With available capacity increasing in Hong Kong and southern China, Shanghai is likely to feel the impact first. “This could be a short-term effect, but uncertainty around e-commerce is clearly influencing the market,” van de Wouw added.

While Xeneta projects the air cargo market to grow by 4.6% in 2025, the company warns that changes in e-commerce regulations and the introduction of tariffs could weigh on this outlook.

“For the past few years, e-commerce has been the driving force behind air cargo growth. If new regulations significantly impact e-commerce volumes, it could have a profound effect on global freight rates,” said van de Wouw.

Some shippers are already exploring ways to reduce the impact of US tariffs, while others anticipate lower airfreight rates if e-commerce volumes experience a sustained decline. Meanwhile, other markets—such as Vietnam—could see price increases as companies shift sourcing away from China to mitigate tariff exposure.

Complicating matters further is the proposed US port call fee on Chinese-built vessels, which could disrupt ocean shipping schedules. Xeneta noted that this could temporarily drive-up container freight rates and even push more shipments from sea to air.

Looking ahead, Xeneta predicts that airlines may shift capacity from China to Southeast Asia or transatlantic routes. Freight forwarders are expected to delay signing block space agreements, while shippers may opt for shorter-term contracts in the first half of the year as they navigate market uncertainty.

“This situation is entirely beyond the air cargo industry’s control,” van de Wouw concluded. “There’s a great deal of uncertainty, and no one knows what the long-term regulatory landscape will look like or how it will impact consumer confidence.”

February’s 4% growth follows months of double-digit increases in 2024, aligning with Xeneta’s projected 4-6% market expansion for the year. Adjusting for the timing of the Lunar New Year, Xeneta estimates combined market growth of around 3% for January and February.

Additional factors influencing the monthly slowdown include a high comparison base in 2024 and the diminishing impact of Red Sea-related disruptions, as supply chains have adjusted to longer transit times.

While spot market rates increased by 10%, global seasonal rates (valid for more than one month) dipped 1% year over year to $2.21 per kg, reflecting shifts in supply and demand dynamics.

  • Northeast Asia to Europe: Spot rates increased 10% year over year to $4.32 per kg.
  • Northeast Asia to North America: Rates saw the steepest month-over-month drop, falling 17% to $3.79 per kg.
  • Europe to Latin America & North America: Spot rates grew in the high single digits month over month, remaining more than 20% above last year’s levels.

“The elevated spot rates reflect limited passenger belly capacity during the winter season, alongside freighter capacity shifting away from these corridors,” Xeneta concluded.

Source: aircargonews.net