Hapag-Lloyd anticipates a possible cargo surge ahead of the Lunar New Year in January, driven in part by shippers aiming to avoid potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods under the incoming Trump administration. Despite strong fourth-quarter demand, the carrier expects profitability to dip compared to its record-breaking third quarter.
“There could be a rush leading up to Chinese New Year; I wouldn’t rule it out,” said CEO Rolf Habben Jansen during an online briefing following the release of Hapag-Lloyd’s Q3 earnings. He noted that while demand is currently “very healthy,” it remains unclear how much of this is due to pre-loading.
The Lunar New Year holiday begins on January 29, shortly after Donald Trump’s inauguration, potentially coinciding with the imposition of steep tariffs. Habben Jansen suggested such measures could prompt a shift in trade flows similar to those seen during Trump’s first term, when manufacturers diversified production away from China.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of that trend,” he said. “Trade flows may change, but global trade will hopefully remain strong. Free trade is essential for global wealth creation.”
The anticipated increase in cargo volumes could bolster short-term freight rates as demand spikes ahead of the Lunar New Year. Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd is finalizing preparations for the launch of the Gemini Cooperation alliance with Maersk on February 1. The partnership, aimed at improving schedule reliability through fewer port pairings, will open for bookings in two weeks.
Habben Jansen expressed optimism that the alliance’s focus on predictability and reliability would attract shippers willing to pay a premium. “We first need to deliver consistent schedule reliability, week in and week out,” he added.
Hapag-Lloyd remains cautious about labor disruptions at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, where dockworkers’ extended contracts expire on January 15. While hopeful for an amicable resolution, Habben Jansen acknowledged the ongoing tensions between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and maritime employers over automation proposals.
Despite these uncertainties, Hapag-Lloyd forecasts 3% cargo demand growth for 2025, reflecting confidence in stable global trade flows.
Hapag-Lloyd reported a 256% year-over-year surge in third-quarter net profit, reaching $1 billion, up from $293 million in Q3 2023. Revenue rose 29% to $5.8 billion, driven by a 23% increase in average revenue per TEU to $1,612, alongside a 3.8% rise in volume to 3.2 million TEUs.
While fourth-quarter EBIT is expected to fall between $460 million and $861 million, analysts from Jefferies Equity Research noted that Hapag-Lloyd remains financially strong, benefiting from robust freight market conditions.
As the carrier navigates a dynamic trade environment, it continues to adapt to evolving market and policy challenges while maintaining its focus on operational excellence.
Source: www.joc.com