Planned U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are expected to accelerate a shift in containerized trade toward Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, according to Linerlytica.
Vietnam has emerged as a key player, with containerized exports to the U.S. surpassing two million TEUs in the first 10 months of 2024. This marks a doubling since 2017 and a 41% year-on-year (y/y) increase in Q2 2024 alone.
Vietnam’s competitive edge lies in its skilled workforce, low production costs, and strengthened trade relations with the U.S.
Thailand has also seen significant growth, tripling its U.S.-bound exports since 2017 to reach 900,000 TEUs by October 2024—a 25% y/y rise. This surge has been largely driven by demand for Thai food and agricultural products.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s exports to the U.S. exceeded one million TEUs in 2024, up from 600,000 TEUs in 2017, with key exports including appliances and machinery.
Although China remains the largest source of U.S. containerized imports, its share has dropped from 70.4% in 2017 to 58.9% in 2024. Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand continue to gain market share as companies diversify their supply chains in response to tariffs and other geopolitical factors.
Linerlytica also highlighted that the planned U.S. tariff hikes are focused on Mexico and Canada, with limited impact on maritime traffic. The proposed 10% tariff on Chinese goods is lower than earlier iterations and does not include a blanket tariff on all imports.
“This could further enhance the prospects for Asian exports, particularly for Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand, which have seen the largest gains in the past six years,” Linerlytica stated.
Source: theloadstar.com