US retailers are accelerating their year-end import volumes, planning to bring in an additional 350,000 TEUs this November and December compared to forecasts from just a month ago. The surge aims to preempt disruptions from a potential East and Gulf Coast dockworker strike in January and significant tariff hikes proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report, published by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), retailers now expect November imports to rise by 13.6% year-over-year, a sharp increase from the previously forecasted 0.9% growth. December imports are also projected to climb by 6.1%, a notable revision from the earlier estimate of 0.2%.
Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF, warned of the economic risks posed by these developments. “Neither a potential dockworker strike nor steep tariff hikes are good for retailers, their customers, or the broader economy,” Gold stated in the GPT report.
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is at the center of the labor concerns. After staging a three-day strike in October during contentious contract negotiations, the union reached a tentative agreement on wages but left key issues like automation unresolved. With the current extension expiring on January 15, the threat of another strike looms large, prompting retailers to frontload imports.
Simultaneously, Trump’s re-election and his plan to impose tariffs as high as 200% on Chinese imports are accelerating the urgency. Given the long lead times between placing purchase orders and receiving goods, retailers are racing to import spring merchandise before the Lunar New Year on January 29, when Chinese factories typically shut down for weeks.
US imports from China have already been strong throughout 2024, increasing by 15.4% in the first nine months, according to data from PIERS, a product of S&P Global. In light of the strike and tariff concerns, GPT revised its January import forecast upward to a 2.5% year-over-year increase, up from last month’s 0.8% projection. February imports, however, are expected to decline by 9.3%, slightly better than the previously predicted 11.2% drop.
With labor unrest and trade policy changes creating significant uncertainties, US retailers are acting swiftly to secure inventory and mitigate potential disruptions heading into 2025.
Source: www.joc.com