Air cargo demand continued its upward trajectory in October, marking 15 straight months of growth. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne km (CTK), increased by 9.8% year-over-year (y/y).

Capacity also rose, growing 5.9% y/y, with the cargo load factor increasing 1.7 percentage points to reach 47.3%.

Capacity expansion was driven by an 8.5% rise in international belly capacity and a 5.6% boost in freighter capacity. Additionally, global air cargo yields rose 10.6% y/y in October, remaining 49% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

While the outlook for 2024 remains strong, IATA Director General Willie Walsh cautioned about potential headwinds in 2025. “2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, but 2025 may bring challenges,” Walsh said.

He pointed to proposed tariffs from the incoming Trump administration on Canada, China, and Mexico as potential disruptors to global supply chains and consumer confidence. Walsh emphasized that the industry’s resilience will be tested by these geopolitical uncertainties.

Key economic indicators revealed varied trends. Industrial production rose by 1.6% in September, and global goods trade increased by 2.4%. Walsh attributed part of the growth to businesses stockpiling inventories ahead of potential disruptions, including a looming U.S. port strike.

However, the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained above 50, indicating overall growth, while the PMI for new export orders stayed below 50, highlighting persistent trade concerns.

Inflation showed mixed signals as well. In October, U.S. inflation climbed to 2.6%, EU inflation rose to 2.3%, while China’s inflation slowed to 0.3%, raising worries of a broader economic slowdown in Asia.

Latin American carriers led the pack with an 18.5% y/y increase in cargo demand for October. Asia-Pacific airlines followed with a 13.4% rise, North American carriers with 9.5%, and European carriers with 7.6%.

Middle Eastern airlines saw a 4.5% increase, while African airlines recorded the lowest growth at 1.6%.

As 2024 progresses with strong momentum, the air cargo industry faces the dual task of capitalizing on current demand while preparing for potential challenges in 2025.

 

Source: aircargonews.net