Softening spot rates, weak volume projections and cautious consumer sentiment point to a clear reality for the trans-Pacific container market: the usual pre–Lunar New Year shipping surge is absent in 2026.

Market participants say demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, which begins Feb. 17, has been unusually subdued. Chinese factories will still shut down for at least a week, but the cargo rush that typically precedes those closures has failed to materialize.

Any limited January activity has already passed, according to Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand, who noted that vessel capacity continues to grow faster than demand.

Weak retailer demand is driving spot rates lower ahead of the holiday. North Asia–US West Coast rates fell from $2,075 per FEU at the start of January to about $1,900 by month’s end, based on Platts data. Other benchmarks show similar declines, with Shanghai–West Coast rates down sharply across Drewry and Shanghai Shipping Exchange indexes. Overall, spot rates are roughly 50% lower than a year ago.

Carriers are increasingly offering discounted voyage-specific “bullet” rates—sometimes several hundred dollars below published FAK levels—to fill ships. Offers as low as $1,750 per FEU to the West Coast and $2,500 to the East Coast are widely available.

US import volumes are expected to remain weak. The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker forecasts imports to fall 4.6% year over year in February, 12.6% in March and 8.1% in April.

Consumer sentiment is adding further pressure. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to 84.5 in January, its lowest level since 2014, reflecting growing concern about both current conditions and future prospects.

Lower rates are likely to strengthen shippers’ negotiating position as annual service contract talks ramp up, particularly after the TPM26 conference in early March.

Blank sailings are also rising, underscoring weak demand. eeSea data shows carriers plan to remove more than 206,000 TEUs of capacity on Asia–US West Coast routes in February, nearly double January levels. Blanked capacity on Asia–US East and Gulf Coast trades has also increased month over month.

Carriers are cutting sailings in late February and early March to adjust for reduced export volumes during the Lunar New Year holiday, Sand said.

Source: joc.com