US retailers are easing off post–winter holiday restocking even as they prepare for what is expected to be a strong holiday sales season, with import volumes projected to stay below 2 million TEUs per month through March.
The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation, released Friday, forecasts double-digit year-over-year import declines through the end of 2025 and no growth in early 2026. Monthly volumes are expected to slide steadily to 1.79 million TEUs by March.
Heavy frontloading earlier in the year is a major factor behind the sharper-than-usual slowdown in imports heading into year-end. But uncertain consumer sentiment and volatile US tariff policies are also prompting retailers to keep inventories tight.
US container imports surged 3.7% year over year in the first half of 2025 as shippers pulled cargo forward to avoid higher tariffs, but the GPT now expects total 2025 volumes to end 2.3% below last year. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the Trump administration’s shifting tariff approach has made “market forecasting highly uncertain.”
“We expect a small decline in imports this year versus 2024 and a larger pullback in the first quarter of 2026,” Hackett said.
According to GPT projections, US imports in November and December will fall 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, compared with the same months last year. The steep declines reflect easier comparisons, as importers frontloaded heavily in late 2024 due to labor disruptions, including a brief strike at several East and Gulf Coast ports.
US retail sales are on pace to exceed $1 trillion in 2025, up roughly 3% to 4% from last year, GPT analysts said Thursday. But consumer sentiment has softened: a preliminary November reading from the University of Michigan showed a dip from October amid concerns tied to the more than five-week federal government shutdown.
Retailers continue to take a conservative approach to inventory management in response to mixed economic signals and evolving tariff threats. Inventory-to-sales ratios have remained between 1.28 and 1.32, US Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows, indicating lean stock levels even after early-year frontloading. GPT forecasts suggest that restraint will carry into 2026, with imports expected to drop to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million in February.
A recent US-China trade deal prompted some retailers to accelerate short-term purchases, but the impact has been modest. Although the agreement temporarily halves the “fentanyl tax” on Chinese imports, the tariff rate remains near 47%—still far higher than duties on goods from alternative Asian sourcing markets.
GPT’s coverage includes the major container gateways on all three US coasts: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle/Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Source: joc.com