Containerized imports into the United States are on track to hit their lowest level in two and a half years this month, with retailers warning that ongoing tariff uncertainty will keep volumes firmly in negative territory well into the second quarter of next year.
According to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, December imports are projected to total 1.86 million TEUs — the weakest monthly level since June 2023.
The soft outlook extends well beyond the holidays. GPT’s first forecast for April 2026 calls for 1.97 million TEUs, an 11% decline from April 2025, suggesting that trade flows are unlikely to rebound soon.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
GPT anticipates a sluggish start to 2026, with import volumes in January, February, and March expected to fall 10.3%, 8.5%, and 16.8%, respectively, compared with the same months in 2025.
The pullback in import demand comes even as retailers prepare for what the NRF predicts will be the first US holiday season to surpass $1 trillion in sales — a year-over-year increase of 3.7% to 4.2%. Still, broader consumer sentiment remains shaky: September retail sales rose just 0.2%, and a November 22 Conference Board survey showed consumer confidence sinking to its lowest level since April, when the latest round of tariffs took effect.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
December’s expected total is nearly 13% below last year’s level. While final November numbers are not yet available, the NRF projects 1.91 million TEUs — an 11.6% year-over-year decline.
For 2025 as a whole, the NRF forecasts 25.2 million TEUs of containerized imports, down 1.4% from 2024.
The Global Port Tracker surveys activity at major US gateways, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle–Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Source: joc.com